Tag: NY
A Tale of Two 4473’s
From as far back as I can recall of the throes of gun control. It is the incessant, endless claims of not enough gun laws, we need more, and they should all be banned. Despite all the banshee screaming from the mountain tops, we are witness to bail reform, lenient sentencing if at all, day of crime release-rotating door policies, and the topics at hand, no prosecution henceforth for the tens of thousands of gun laws on the books.
Be a scholar and give it an hour of your time. You’ll find some of the multitudes of overlapping and exceedingly redundant laws; you might notice that many of them call out criminal acts that are also illegal no matter what method is invoked. For instance, it is, under broad definition, illegal to commit manslaughter and or murder. It is heinous without regard to how it is accomplished.
In current news, fresh from last evening, Hunter Biden, after five years in the making, has been finally charged with felony gun indictments. Namely centered and focused on false statements declared on the ATF 4473 yellow form which those of us in the hunting and firearm industry are intimately familiar with. It is required along with a NICS check for anyone in the United States who purchases a firearm from an FFL dealer, Private sales also require this in some states for private sale. My home state of New York requires this with the change of the State Police now doing the background checks.
Hunter, if convicted of felony counts may face a maximum fine of $750,000 and 25 years in jail. It is reported that the charges relate to lying to an FFL Firearms dealer, declaring a false Statement on the ATF4473 form, and possessing an illegal firearm for eleven days. No mention was made of illegally disposing of the 38 caliber revolver in a dumpster across the street from a high school. Technically, Hallie Biden did the deed of disposing of it, as reported. His very public drug use is in very clear violation of the declaration provision in the document and is a prickly charge to squirm out of. 11 days? By the casual read of current gun laws, there is no grace period for possession of an illegally possessed firearm. His lawyer is reported to claim, that no one was harmed so it doesn’t matter as the 11 days. Not as I read the laws…
These reported offenses are all part of black letter law that is in practice, treated as murky, discretionary. We should expect better from our DA’s and we certainly deserve better. It’s total bullshit in view of having the 4473 form in the first place. It either has the backbone to ensure noneligible applicants are thwarted in purchasing a firearm or a ruse of no intentional detriment.
The talking heads are predicting no significant jail time or fine, or should it go to the full extent, a daddy POTUS pardon would follow. As of the moment, it is conjecture, not based on fact. Vega odds are yet to weigh in.
I do know directly of another tale, not so long ago, where a Cornell student son, murdered his CEO father at point-blank range with a 12-gauge shotgun. I worked with the deceased up until the company was purchased by him and also knew the family. He was VP of sales at the time. I was not invited to the transition as I was not of a favorable opinion, seeking to have him fired. It is a long sordid story that you couldn’t begin to make up. His son committed the act a little over two years after I had moved on to start my own company.
The very public murder trial ended with a hung jury and then dismissed. The feds came back with charges stemming from false statements made on an ATF 4473 form. The result of that was the full prosecution of a common citizen and a sentence of 20 years plus 3 years of post-supervision. I have left out details and opinions of this abbreviated tale as the point of it to illustrate the ballistic version of two levels of justice currently in vogue.
The takeaway from this in my view: Despite all the claims of timing to the election, pollical dirty tricks, It has been a slow roll of nearly five years to even get this far on Hunter Biden. I think we can safely assume that if it had been one of Trump’s sons, it would have been prosecuted and the convicted corpse left to rot within a year’s time. At least figuratively, in reality, millions in fines and release from jail as a very old man. More importantly, should this be you or I, not of the beautiful people crowd, or politically connected to the party of the ass, we might also be left to rot in jail and destitute of any financial gains. Pay attention folks, the tale of two 4473’s is telling of so much more…
-MJ
© 2023 Mike Joyner- Joyner Outdoor Media
The Dilemma of Wild Turkey Records
Early on while conducting research for New York State Wild Turkey Records, it became evident that collecting the necessary data, tracking down possible records, and weeding out ghost stories of monster gobblers would not be a small task or an exact science. The abilities of turkey hunters to spin tall tales are as legendary as that of any fisherman.
The common issue in vetting any prospective entry; the weight of trophy gobblers is seldom accurate and is suspect in many unvetted circumstances. In most cases, spurs and beards can be retrieved, and a ruler applied. In pursuit of gathering an accurate as possible representation of trophy gobblers in the empire state, there are several hurdles to overcome, and I’ll have a request for your help in gathering additional data. The following describes some of the difficulties:
- Many hunters do not enter their birds into the NWTF system.
- Submission fee, not an NWTF member.Do not take the time to enter, or unless the gobbler is ranked high.
- Simply not interested in records
- NYSDEC does not maintain a database for recognizing trophy gobblers. They do log coarse data from required tag reporting. Unfortunately, the data is collected in broad increments, honor system only.
- Possible records are word of mouth and unverifiable.
- Overestimated and unverifiable body weights
- No definitive records are found prior to 1969.
- Prior to modern hunting seasons establish after the successes of conservation restoration efforts, post-market hunting era, very little distinction was given to the differences between jakes and gobblers with both referred to as gobblers.
Without a statewide system or database available that records trophy gobblers, one can only chase down reported stories, and contest results, and look to a national database for data. Currently, the NWTF record system for accessing trophy gobblers and merged data collated at turkey-talk.com are the only databases available.
During the exercise of parsing records by county, Cayuga, Franklin, Fulton, Genesee, Hamilton, Lewis, Niagara, Rockland, Warren, and Westchester have very few record entries or none thus far. In reviewing data that spans over three decades, the overall estimated harvest number in the state surpasses 1.4 million birds, with over twelve hundred records known, It is desired to have all the counties well represented and assume with good reason that many high-scoring gobblers can be found in all the huntable counties within the state. It is requested that if so inclined, register your gobbler with the NWTF or directly with the book project “Empire State Limb Hangers”. Although the NWTF database is duly recognized, it is not a requirement for inclusion in this records book project and future updated editions.
It is acknowledged that there are many gobblers taken in the great empire state that are not recorded which would easily ratchet the records upward. If it were possible to track down and verify a fraction of the stories, the rankings would be significantly affected. This essentially is the dilemma.
It is important to note that this project was initially started in 2008, and in all the delays, and life changes that occurred that delayed the books’ completion, active, periodic requests for inclusion, including both individual submissions and turkey contests that could be vetted were published and kept active through websites and social media. With over a decade of open invitations to participate, it is an inevitable aspect of human nature that will have some show up a day late for the party.
For future editions of this book, updates and additions will be based on available database queries from NWTF records database as well as verified gobblers from other sources. As many sportsmen’s clubs are coming online with their websites and publish historical data, it is thought to find additional record entries of notable distinction. I do encourage you to participate and would love to hear your stories.
Useful links
http://www.joyneroutdoormedia.com/elh.html
https://www.nwtf.org/the-lifestyle/turkey-records-home
NYSDEC – Game Harvest Reporting http://www.dec.ny.gov/outdoor/8316.html
https://www.turkey-talk.com/nyrec.html
-MJ
© 2023 Mike Joyner- Joyner Outdoor Media
Long Island Delivers a New Top Wild Turkey Record
With the inaugural fully open spring season this past May in Suffolk County, it was predicted by many of us in the turkey hunting community that gobblers tagged in Suffolk County would likely rachet the record books upward. It has not only moved the high water mark upward but delivered a new #1 Typical Score on May 10th. This follows another gobbler in the top five from this season- https://www.turkey-talk.com/tblog/?p=2694
A fall season had been in place in Suffolk since 2009, along with a spring youth hunt that began in 2011. After much deliberation and observations of plentiful and healthy flocks on Long Island, the go-ahead for an open spring season hunt was green-lighted this past May. With hunting fall gobblers a more difficult endeavor in the fall season, having an open season in the spring was expected to yield even more impressive gobblers. It is a shift of preferences from fall to spring from over a century ago when fall season was the traditional season.
Christopher Tellone, a resident of Long Island, took his first ever wild turkey gobbler this spring and without question, a wild turkey gobbler of a lifetime. It may be his first turkey, but Christopher is no spring chicken in the woods or new to hunting. As a lifelong deer hunter, he employed many of his woodsmanship skills to help him bag the new top typical score gobbler in the Empire State. Chris, now known to his friends as “Long Spur,” tells the story of getting onto a flock of birds that morning with several gobblers courting hens. Although he is new to calling turkeys, he knew that the hens were not swayed by his calling and the gobblers were not leaving the hens they courted. After giving it ample time for the flock to come his way, he backed out to head to his truck. He spotted the flock several hundred yards in a field. Surmising where they would end up, he patiently made his way to position himself to where they would eventually cross. As the hens left the gobblers an hour later to head back to the woods, they crossed in front, and the gobblers would follow. Choosing the largest gobbler that lead the bachelor group, Chris made good on his shot.
Chris’s bird scoring 84.0000 NWTF-Score surpasses the previous record held for 24 years for the number one typical category taken by Robert Miller Jr. in 1999, with an 82.1600 NWTF-Score. The gobbler was weighed on a certified commercial scale and properly measured in accordance with NWTF guidelines. The gobbler weighed in at 28lbs, sporting 1.75” spurs on each leg, and swung a 10.5” beard.
The gobbler, currently recorded by the NWTF (National Wild Turkey Federation,) also shows the bird to rank #3 in the state for spurs, and #4 for weight.
Using the SBP method of scoring, the gobbler scores 182.0000 taking over the #2 ranking in New York.
NWTF Typical calculation = (weight x1) + (spurs total x10) + (beard x2)
SBP Typical calculation = (weight x1) + (spurs total x32) + (beard x4)
Congratulations on an impressive first gobbler and a new record!
https://your.nwtf.org/members/records/
https://turkey-talk.com/scoresbp.html
-MJ
© 2023 Mike Joyner- Joyner Outdoor Media
Pending #4 Typical Record NY Gobbler
After a recent query on social media several days ago, a pending new record book gobbler has been identified and it’s been suggested by many, including myself that with the inaugural spring season on Long Island this past May, that record book gobblers would likely come from there. The gobbler was hunted by Butch Janke from Long Island, in Suffolk County on public grounds on May 6th.
Butch’s gobbler weighed in at 26lbs even, on a state-certified scale, sporting 1-11/16” and 1-1/2” spurs, and a 10-3/8” beard, making the gobbler a record book entry for the typical category. The bird preliminary scores are as follows:
NWTF Typical 81.2500 (weight x1) + (spurs total x10) + (beard x2)
SBP Typical 177.7500 (weight x1) + (spurs total x32) + (beard x4)
Butch’s gobbler will be entered into the NWTF records once witnesses confirm. Two member witnesses are required as weight is over 22 lbs, and spurs are longer than 1-1/2″.
Preliminary stats, once finalized, the gobbler will be the fourth highest-scoring typical gobbler in New York State. Spurs will also tie with ten others recorded in the third-longest spur length in the empire state. Additionally, the gobbler ranks fifth in the SBP system calculation.
For others looking to record their gobbler, it is a good opportunity to point out that he used a certified weight scale, and took plenty of pictures in keeping with NWTF guidelines and those republished and supported by turkey-talk.com, Joyner Outdoor Media, and the Empire State Limb Hangers book project. Butch has agreed to participate in the book project, and I look forward to the interview and learning his story of the hunt firsthand.
-MJ
© 2023 Mike Joyner- Joyner Outdoor Media
14 hours ETA for the last 2023 NY Turkey hunt
With one morning left, the fat lady is suiting up for the final curtain call. Whatever you have in your back pocket for the end of the 31-day wars may be, It’s go time for any last efforts.
What you have observed during the past 30 days comes down to any clues you have from the past week. In any late season advice, and one that I have adopted; I will generally play it old school. We do want to send the fat lady packing before show time. With exceptions noted, late season is about conservative tactics, having very recent sightings, and locations of birds willing to talk or at least show themselves.
It’s been a hard season in many areas, and the ocassional stories of hot action are what give us turkey chasers hope when the local action is non esixtent. Seeing far too many hens out at 6-7 a.m. and that would mean a second nesting is starting to take place or they haven’t been bred yet. Opinions will vary. As learned over many seasons, if you get within a gobbler’s comfort zone, his “bubble” you can get a welcomed response.
It has been a quiet season here in Cortland, and many hunters get antsy and move often, when a little patience would make for less wary birds. If you follow my musings you know I like my gobblers without an advanced education. If I can locate the dumbest gobbler in the county, I am all over it. The blessings of a kamikaze bird is a stroke of luck we seldom get to enjoy. With the reduced populations such encounters remain even more rare.
I’ll repeat most of this advice from prior posts- Confidence calling, feeding purrs, whips and whistles, light clucks, and very soft yelping if any. If you get a gobble in response to your calling, get ready as they may not gobble again and come in silent. It is good advice to assume a silent approach. Late season encounters often conclude in minutes not hours.
Woodsmanship also and assumed, plays a big roll in late season success, the scouting you did last June may yield the clue that puts you in close to where bachelor groups hang. When chasing hens no longer overrides their need to eat and replenish their fat reserves you’ll find them at likely food sources. All the scouting you did in March and April gives you a database of choice roosting trees, dusting bowls, and strutting areas. Most of the seasoned hunters I know actively scout as they hunt through May. Weeks old Intel has limited use as they are either moving to find receptive hens or hanging with other gobblers. If you can sight a gobbler going to roost you have a crucial clue for the morning. I normally would say listen for gobbling on the evening roost. Although others report some roosting success, I have experienced none of that in far too many seasons. I learned to roost birds decades ago,and still do.
Turkeys have been chased for four weeks and any mistake you make tomorrow will in most cases result in an unfilled tag. Attention to anything you wear or carry that makes an unnatural sound, the way you walk through the woods, calling too loudly, snapping twigs underfoot, are all under the scrutiny of a very wary birds.
Should you get a bird to gobble it should be noted that what you thought was two hundred yards in the woods three weeks ago is well under a hundred yards and closing. They often won’t gobble until very close, nearly in range the last week of the season, and if you aren’t focused and ready. You can add some BBQ sauce to your tag.
Hunt all the way to your spot, and all the way back to the truck, the entire hunt can turn around in seconds and the action can be fast and furious. Stay sharp, safe, and alert.
I may get out for a few hours before work, but I can’t say I’m pushing for more than watching another sunrise in the turkeywoods and with any luck have a conversation with my favorite game bird.
Best of luck the final morning of the season.
-MJ
© 2023 Mike Joyner- Joyner Outdoor Media
Meaning Of Thanksgiving At The ‘J’ Ranch
What It Means to Celebrate Thanksgiving At The ‘J’ Ranch
As a holiday celebration that prominently features a turkey dinner feast, it is front and center in this author’s thoughts. Having had several medical “Hard Resets” in the past fourteen months, a celebration of “What am I thankful for,” has my undivided attention. Here at the ‘J’ Ranch, Joyner Outdoor Media, there is a long list of things to be thankful for. The shortlist for this grumpy old turkey hunter includes a good supply of gobblers to chase next season.
I am literally thankful to wake up each morning. Thankful for the love of a good woman, my children, grandchildren, family, and friends. I am thankful for a career that is peaking in years when most are retiring out. I am also thankful to be able to walk again under the stars of a Texas sky this past spring. Gaining back the stength to climb a ridge to be on the same level with a bird in the turkey woods is something I am so grateful for. I was nearly denied temporarily or could have turned out worse had my medical issues resolved differently. Those are just highlighted ones; the list could run through several pages and my ability to recall them all.
This Thanksgiving will be observed in its full meaning here as I hope it will be at your home. Most years, a jake or jenny taken in the fall is featured as an essential part of our feast. My fall birds this year were taken in Missouri. The bounty will be enjoyed at Squaw Creek Lodge in Northwestern Missouri. It is a milestone as the first harvested gobblers taken there since the opening of the new outfitting business. At the “J’ Ranch we may use a bird taken this Spring in New York. It is our tradition to use a wild turkey for the thanksgiving feast or Christmas meal. Some years it is done for both holiday festivities.
This Thanksgiving, every holiday, truthfully every day, we rise to take on the day. We have much to be thankful for. Our lives are not perfect reflections of bedtime stories, romantic-themed movies, lofty ideals. It is seldom the fast-paced living on the edge, amps on 11 lifestyles. It sure looks good in a video and especially looks good on paper. Our lives twist and turn, we lose those we love. We are at times disappointed in ourselves. We can be discouraged by events. Sometimes let down in our expectations of others. It happens to all of us in varying degrees. It occurs at different times and places without regard to our stations in life.
We dust ourselves off from the imperfections, disappointments. We resolve the intentional or unintentional offensives and we take it on again the next day. That is the American spirit that we are proud to say. It is our common connection to others no matter where they come from. We celebrate the good in our lives, in others, the special moments, and the successes.
Your crazy deranged relatives at the Thanksgiving dinner table are actually human by birth. You might be surprised to know they live, love, lose, worry, and suffer for the same reasons yourself. They take joy in spending a day with you in it. Having the company of others on this holiday is no more complicated than that. Some of you may accept the challenge.
With many followers and friends here on social media, there is a continual list of those to pray for. Some, for the most tragic of circumstances. There are those passed unexpectedly, afflicted by disease, severe medical issues or addictions. There are many reaching out, struggling with divorce, and those with broken or dysfunctional families. I am one of many who include you in our collective thoughts and prayers. It is a stark reminder of what blessings I may have and to not take them for granted. We can for at least a few brief moments be of comfort in our responses and our actions. Not facing your strife alone, to know others are rooting for you is the upside of being human.
It is my sincere wish that all of you enjoy a day with family and close friends. May your joy and love of others leave no room for/cast away the things that divide us. We can surely do without the hateful politics, and contrived drama far from our homes and hearts.
Happy Thanksgiving!
-MJ
© 2022 Mike Joyner- Joyner Outdoor Media
New York Gun Owner/Sportsmen Apathy
Well, my fellow sportsmen, turkey hunters, deer hunters, waterfowlers, and gun owners across the great Empire State, we can legitimately be labeled as apathetic, not in the game as evidenced by the preliminary results reported this morning. As it appears we will have to suffer four more years of a governor that openly defies the supreme court rulings on constitutional matters, and governs as an emotionally riddled suppository that caters exclusively to a radical left base.
I find this painful to openly state, but we deserve this, we let it transpire with little opposition.
Using estimates for 2020-2021, 4.5 million gun owners are thought to be among us in New York. Seven hundred thousand outdoorsmen participate in hunting pursuits, although no breakdown of gun ownership there. To be fair I cannot assert that all of those included in these numbers would vote single issue, even to preserve our constitutional rights. With the current results pegging Gov. Hochul at 3.022 million votes with a margin of 311,000 votes, a five-point spread, on its face, our group of “like-minded people” could have singled-handedly sent her packing in a landslide.
I’ve heard enough of the downstate runs everything argument… Total bullshit… We failed miserably to represent ourselves. If 68% of us 4.5 million gun owners in New York pulled the lever, scanned the ballot, tables would have been turned. “Put up or shut up” is an appropriate retort to this fail.
Would of, could of, should of, is of little comfort in the coming days when more restrictive gun control gets shoved down our throats while we hope and pray it gets remedied by the Supreme Court years later, assuming confiscation doesn’t happen beforehand. You can bet with our current representatives; they want to be first in the nation in the erosion of the second amendment. It is the one amendment that ensures the good keeping of the first amendment as the others. If you have paid attention at all in the last decade, there are calls for censorship, ending private gun ownership, for neutering anyone that can oppose leftist views. Gun control has always been about control of us. Our opponents have made it clear that safety is not even the real discussion here at all. Bail reform is a game changer for criminal rights over law-abiding citizens. Ten out of ten criminals approve of that message.
We could have stopped this yesterday, and it is clear we didn’t vote as a Tour de Force, nor participate in the fundamental right as a New Yorker. Those that oppose us would like to see our views removed from the landscape and they did show up and vote. To those of our ranks that did, thank you from a fellow patriot. To those that sat it out, and never registered, there is no tolerance for your bitching when it hits the fan. In my best New Yorker accent “You need to show up and vote.”
-MJ
© 2022 Mike Joyner- Joyner Outdoor Media
NY SPORTSMEN & GUN OWNERS- CONSTITUTIONAL RIGHTS MATTER TO YOU ON NOV 8th 2022?
THE EXPECTED ANSWER- HELL YES, WITHOUT QUESTION…
A preemptive disclaimer- There is no sugar coating it, no regard for moderate positions, compromise, or apologists in this commentary. For those offended, not sorry, don’t let the door slap you on the ass on the way out. We cannot be sidetracked by the likability of the truth or the notion of being politically correct. This is an updated commentary from prior election cycles and we need to do far better.
A gratuitous ‘Yes’ response serves no one unless followed by conservative/constitutional core principles put into action. As a whole, gun owners, hunters, archers, trappers, competition shooters, and sportsmen in New York State fail miserably. Despite a large demographic and cross-section of the population, we effectively neuter ourselves each election cycle, and there is no valid reason to justify that being the case
To be fair, there are those among us that vote, participate in the political process, petition, and spread the word, you know who you are and this commentary is not intended to insult your sensibilities. Sadly too many sit on their hands when push comes to shove.
Despite the fly-by-night passages of the ‘Safe Act,’ and the emotional knee-jerk reaction of the stand in governor’s “Safe Act II,” an egregious assault on second amendment rights and further restriction on law-abiding citizens, our King ‘C’ was reelected with little opposition by our ranks. Shall we sit on our hands for the emotionally driven radical Hochul that replaced him? We literally had the numbers to vote the bastard out, but could not bother to show up and vote. Does all this sound too harsh? I have expectations of my fellow sportsmen and gun owners to stand up against this naked tyranny. It starts at the voting booth.
We tolerate increasing restrictions pertaining to gun rights, hunting, fishing, and trapping and we are being dictated to by those that have little to no understanding or working knowledge and generally allow us to pay our way while putting a virtual thumb on every aspect of our activities and inalienable rights. It is also to our further dismay that those that are bent on removing the first and second amendments and ending all hunting and fishing get ample access to our political system and yet we are far too apathetic. As a group, we allow this as we decry downstate politics. Sorry, but it’s total bullshit. We failed to see it through.
It is plain and simple. Why do we care in New York? New York in all its levels of government will waste no time in harassing us, even when faced with supreme court decisions. Despite knowing that they will be struck down for unconstitutional offenses, they would rather waste time and money just to keep a jackboot on our necks…
We decry that downstate dictates all things within the state politics and laws that are passed. In the case of issues of interest to gun owners and sportsmen, there is simply no truth to it. In the prior election had just firearm owners voted in mass, Cuomo would have been defeated. There is no plausible excuse for this had we voted consistently. Should we vote as a group, in mass, infringements on our rights including the first and second amendments, our beloved pursuits would see a return as unpinged and free from the constant assault and harassment that we continue to endure. There is much to be upended, reversed, null/voided, and restored.
If you do give a damn about your rights and freedoms and that of your loved ones, your children, your grandchildren, your neighbors, and your brethren, the passive response, sitting out elections is not a responsible choice, and you must exercise your rights as a citizen.
We cannot afford to continue letting others do our bidding… See you at the voting booth?
-MJ
© 2022 Mike Joyner- Joyner Outdoor Media
NY Counties Est. Wild Turkey Harvest Reports
In further examination of NY State wide harvest reports, https://www.turkey-talk.com/tblog/?p=2368 we’ll look at this by the county-wide macro, all the way back before the observable peaks and what is considered by many to be the heyday of turkeys in nearly every place you might look for them. I ask that you consider this carefully from the larger view, rather than looking at widely varying micro-ecosystems. There is a list of precepts, assumptions, and points to make to take notice of and pay heed to before coming to any conclusions. In comparision to the state wide view, pay particular attention to the numbers as the lower estimated numbers appear to vary widely and can be attributed to many factors that tend to null each other out in a larger, macro scale.
Source data used:
The data from 1999 thru 2021 is sourced from NYSDEC webpages https://www.dec.ny.gov/outdoor/30420.html, https://www.dec.ny.gov/outdoor/30412.html Both pages are captured from previously published versions of the same links. Currently, active published links only go back to 2012.
NYSDEC data from 2006 thru 2021 is estimated harvest data.
https://www.dec.ny.gov/outdoor/30420.html 2008 version published spring harvest data included both reported harvest and estimated harvest for 1999 thru 2005 no such comparison for the fall harvest is found in the search.
NYSDEC data from 1999 thru 2005 is estimated harvest data.
https://www.dec.ny.gov/outdoor/30420.html 2008 version published spring harvest data included both reported harvest and estimated harvest for 1999 thru 2005 no such comparison for the fall harvest is found in the search.
The data from 1990 thru 1998 is sourced from NYSDEC webpages https://www.dec.ny.gov/outdoor/30420.html, https://www.dec.ny.gov/outdoor/30412.html Both pages are captured from previously published versions of the same links.
Precepts:
- All data used to create this is from NYSDEC published reports. All comments made here are not as a representative or authority of the NYSDEC or reviewed. Corrections, and or clarifications are sincerely welcomed to make this as accurate as feasibly possible.
- Estimation factors applied to reported harvest numbers are targeted to realistically represent poaching estimates, harvest reporting participation, and other factors identified by the NYSDEC.
- This is a sub-macro county-wide view. Anecdotally, each of us can cite absolute conclusions from our honey holes, the trash talk at the diners, conversations at the trail heads, etc. Managing the wildlife resource by region is the current method.
- Very few of us hunt more than a few counties any given season and even less are afield throughout the entire year. The extenuating factors to list by towns. public game lands, much less by individual parcels, tracts of land are too many, too varied to digest well enough to rationally get a handle of the widespread landscape of decline.
- The factors derived by the years 1999 through 2005 were averaged out by county and applied to estimate numbers for 1990 thru 1998. NYSDEC has not provided or published factors for these years. The peak factor numbers were not used in my calculations so as to not overstate the peak years. If such factoring data exists it would be much preferred
Observations:
- As the peak years are based only on derived averaged factoring, (1999-2005 Spring Season) it is a conservative estimate that the population is now roughly 20-25% of the peak population year. Some individual counties at first glance appear to be further declined. It will require correlation with license sales in those counties to validate that. What is sustainable year to year is not submitted or asserted here. It is far more complex than the harvest data thus far can suggest.
- The factoring spread among all NY counties (1999-2005 Spring Seasons) ranges from 2.65 to 7.40.
- The average spread among all NY counties (1999-2005 Spring Seasons) ranges from 4.06 to 5.71.
- The averaged factor among all NY counties = 4.57 (1999-2005 Spring Seasons)
- Translation- for every harvest reported. 3.57 turkeys across the Empire State were not reported or taken illegally. It is unclear as to what percentages or other contributors.
Comments:
I invite the NYDEC to comment to participate in communicating to New York Sportsmen as to what goes into the statistical modeling and factoring of yearly game harvest number estimates.
I will conclude by asking each of you to view this as trending data, not absolute. Hopefully, the folks at the NYSDEC will provide much more clarity to this and further explain the modeling and factoring that makes this a monitoring tool for the wild turkey resource we are so passionate about.
-MJ
© 2022
Mike Joyner- Joyner Outdoor Media
Estimated Wild Turkey Harvest Reports NY
With the ongoing concerns about the observable decline of wild turkey populations in the great Empire State, it is a timely exercise to take a look at the estimated harvest numbers. We’ll look at this by the statewide macro, all the way back before the observable peaks and what is considered by many to be the heyday of turkeys in nearly every place you might look for them. As a geeky engineer personality, I follow such statistics concerning our favored nemesis, including measurable trophy records. I ask that you consider this carefully from the macro view, as estimations rely on statistical modeling that bears true overall from large volumes of data rather than looking at widely varying micro-ecosystems. Before I dive into this further there is a list of precepts, assumptions, and points to make to take notice of and pay heed to before coming to any conclusions. The current topic of population decline is an emotional and often heated discussion full of finger-pointing and rife with blame and quick fixes. The purpose of this is to show how severe the decline is estimated to be.
Source data used:
The data from 1999 thru 2021 is sourced from NYSDEC webpages https://www.dec.ny.gov/outdoor/30420.html, https://www.dec.ny.gov/outdoor/30412.html Both pages are captured from previously published versions of the same links. Currently, active published links only go back to 2012.
NYSDEC data from 2006 thru 2021 is estimated harvest data.
https://www.dec.ny.gov/outdoor/30420.html 2008 version published spring harvest data included both reported harvest and estimated harvest for 1999 thru 2005 no such comparison for the fall harvest is found in the search.
NYSDEC data from 1999 thru 2005 is estimated harvest data.
https://www.dec.ny.gov/outdoor/30420.html 2008 version published spring harvest data included both reported harvest and estimated harvest for 1999 thru 2005 no such comparison for the fall harvest is found in the search.
The data from 1990 thru 1998 is sourced from NYSDEC webpages https://www.dec.ny.gov/outdoor/30420.html, https://www.dec.ny.gov/outdoor/30412.html Both pages are captured from previously published versions of the same links.
Precepts:
- All data used to create this is from NYSDEC published reports. All comments made here are not as a representative or authority of the NYSDEC or reviewed. Corrections, and or clarifications are sincerely welcomed to make this as accurate as feasibly possible.
- Estimation factors applied to reported harvest numbers are targeted to realistically represent poaching estimates, harvest reporting participation, and other factors identified by the NYSDEC. I would invite them to comment on what is involved in reaching estimation factors applied to each county.
- This is a macro statewide view. Anecdotally, each of us can cite absolute conclusions from our honey holes, the trash talk at the diners, conversations at the trail heads, etc. Managing the wildlife resource by region is the current method.
- Very few of us hunt more than a few counties any given season and even less are afield throughout the entire year. The extenuating factors to list by county much less by individual parcels, tracts of land are too many, too varied to digest well enough to rationally get a handle of the widespread landscape of decline. Such studies on micro ecosystems would take decades to complete and reach any consensus or actionable conclusions.
- The factors derived by the years 1999 through 2005 were averaged out by county and applied to estimate numbers for 1990 thru 1998. NYSDEC has not provided or published factors for these years. The peak factor numbers were not used in my calculations so as to not overstate the peak years. If such factoring data exists it would be much preferred
Observations:
- As the peak years are based only on derived averaged factoring, (1999-2005 Spring Season) it is a conservative estimate that the population is now roughly 20-25% of the peak population year. Some individual counties at first glance appear to be further declined. It will require correlation with license sales in those counties to validate that. What is sustainable year to year is not submitted or asserted here. It is far more complex than the harvest data thus far can suggest.
- The factoring spread among all NY counties (1999-2005 Spring Seasons) ranges from 2.65 to 7.40.
- The average spread among all NY counties (1999-2005 Spring Seasons) ranges from 4.06 to 5.71.
- The averaged factor among all NY counties = 4.57 (1999-2005 Spring Seasons)
- Translation- for every harvest reported. 3.57 turkeys across the Empire State were not reported or taken illegally. It is unclear as to what percentages or other contributors.
Comments:
I invite the NYDEC to comment to participate in communicating to New York Sportsmen as to what goes into the statistical modeling and factoring of yearly game harvest number estimates. Poaching of course is already illegal, over-harvest, etc. One thing each of us can control and improve as a group is the harvest reporting participation. 90-100% is possible. I can recall from NYSDEC -NY NWTF meetings during the change over from raw harvest data reporting to estimated harvest reporting, how low the harvest reporting participation was thought to be. I am a big fan of removing as much guessing as possible to improve the statistical modeling. With the population severely declining, how well does it bode to turn a blind eye to those we know that pile up a half dozen gobblers season after season before filling the first tag? It is not the primary reason for the decline but a contributing factor and hinders the ability to accurately model population trends, or stability.
We can do better. If we are to get a handle on the low-hanging fruit of root causes causing the population to decline, we need to get past this, what we can directly, and immediately control. This is a friendly reminder that as sportsmen, we do not require a state agency to self-regulate our own actions. I won’t implore that any of you adopt my personal ethics, but I would ask each of you to give pause/reservation to squeezing the trigger at your favored stomping grounds where you now only see one or two birds whereas you use to see fifteen or twenty in the spring. In far too many locations across the state, we make that choice on what may be the last remaining turkeys, in the field, on the hill. It may be some time to see them rebound, and there are too many places on my list that I’ll check on, but I am no longer willing to fill a tag there. This includes my own property. It is a most disheartening thing.
I will conclude by asking each of you to view this as trending data, not absolute, and is in a broad view of the entire New York wild turkey population. Hopefully, the folks at the NYSDEC will provide much more clarity to this and further explain the modeling and factoring that makes this a monitoring tool for the wild turkey resource we are so passionate about.
-MJ
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Mike Joyner- Joyner Outdoor Media
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